[Book Summary] Factfulness, by Hans Rosling
Ten reasons we're wrong about the world - and why things are better than you think
Written by the Swedish statistician and physician, Hans Rosling, in company with his daughter-in-law and son, Anna and Ola, this book argues that, despite the many challenges facing the world today, the situation over the last decades has improved tremendously. The authors claim that most people have a negativity bias when it comes to perceiving the state of the world, and that we tend to overestimate the problems and underestimate the progress. You can check your own biases here!
Hans argues that by embracing factfulness, that is, a more data-driven view of the world, we can make better decisions and lead more fulfilling lives. The book is based on Hans' extensive experience as a global health researcher and his expertise in data analysis and presentation at Gapminder. It provides a compelling argument for why we need to change the way we think about the world and how we can do so.
The book is divided in ten main parts, each of which presents the idea of a negativity bias towards the world and its evolution. Let’s get into it!
The Gap Instinct
The first instinct, called The Gap, focuses on the idea that we tend to see the world in terms of dichotomies: rich vs. poor, or developed vs. developing. Hans argues that this way of thinking oversimplifies the reality of the world and leads us to make incorrect assumptions about the state of the world and the people who live in it. And as example, he points out that when we think about the world in terms of rich vs. poor, we often assume that people in poor countries are all equally poor, when that’s definitely not the case.
The author also argues that when we think about the world in terms of developed vs. developing, we tend to overlook the fact that many so-called developing countries are making rapid progress and that the gap between the developed and developing world is narrowing. As example, he cites countries like China and India, which have made incredibly fast progress in recent decades, and are now among the largest economies in the world.
In summary, we tend to see the world in terms of dichotomies, that lead us to oversimplify the reality of the world and to overlook important trends and patterns.
The Negativity Instinct
As we mentioned at the beginning of this post, we tend to have a negativity bias when it comes to perceiving the state of the world. What this negativity does is for us to overestimate the problems and challenges facing the world and to underestimate the progress that has been made. Take wars, for instance. We generally assume that these events are becoming more frequent and more severe but, in reality, the data shows that the number of wars and the number of people killed in wars has been decreasing over time.
This negativity, on the other hand, leads us to focus on the things that are going wrong in the world, while ignoring the many things that are going right. And the facts are the facts: people are living longer, fewer children are dying, and more people have access to education, healthcare, and other basic necessities.
The Straight Line Instinct
As humans, we tend to see linear relationships where, in fact, there are none. This idea that we lean towards assuming that things will continue to change at the same rate into the future is a way of thinking that oversimplifies the reality of the world and leads us to make incorrect assumptions.
For instance, Hans points out that when we hear about trends like population growth or technological progress, we assume that these trends will continue in a straight line over time. But, in reality, things often change more slowly or more rapidly than we expect, and there are often turning points or unexpected events that alter the trajectory of a trend.
Let’s take the population growth as example: if we look at the data projected by the World Bank in their Open Data blog, we see how we will be reaching a moment where the population will flatten. That is estimated to happen at 11 billion human beings. This decline in population growth is due in part to increased access to education and healthcare, as well as changing cultural attitudes towards family size. As families are better educated and have more access to healthcare, they tend to have fewer children.
The Fear Instinct
Have you ever been afraid of flying on an airplane? And, did you know that airplanes are currently the safest form of transportation? This instinct focuses on the idea that we are wired to respond to things that scare us, even when there is little or no evidence to support them.
This, according to the author, can lead us to be unnecessarily afraid of things that are actually safe, and to overlook the things that are truly dangerous. And what might be causing this, you may say? Is it just us, or are there external inputs? Well, it is very well known that this fear can be fuelled by media coverage and how they sensationalise the news by giving disproportionate attention compared to the hundreds of thousands of flights that were safe.
Additionally, Hans also argues that our fear instinct can be used to manipulate us, and that fear-mongering is often used to sell products, generate political support, and control public opinion.
The Size Instinct
We tend to overestimate the size and impact of things that we perceive as dangerous or unusual, and to underestimate the size and impact of things that we perceive as ordinary or mundane. According to Hans, this tendency leads us to be misinformed about the world and to make incorrect assumptions about the relative importance of different issues.
As an example, the author points out that many people overestimate the size of the global Muslim population, and underestimate the size of the global population of Christians. This is because we tend to associate Muslims with terrorism and extremism, and fail to notice that most Muslims are peaceful and law-abiding citizens.
On the other hand, due to this instinct we might be missing the many things that are going well in the world. For instance, we might be afraid of natural disasters like hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, but overlook the fact that these events are becoming less frequent and less deadly over time, due to advancements in technology and disaster preparedness.
The Generalisation Instinct
We tend to categorise things into neat and tidy groups, and then assume that everything within a group is the same. For example, many people have a generalisation about people living in poverty. They might assume that all poor people are lazy or lack ambition, or that all poor countries are inherently corrupt or dysfunctional. But, in reality, the situation is much more complex. There are many factors that contribute to poverty, such as lack of access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities.
One of the main drawbacks of this bias is that we overlook the diversity and complexity of the world due to it. We might assume that all people in a particular country or region are the same, but this misses the fact that there is a great deal of diversity within countries and regions, and that people have different experiences, beliefs, and values.
The Destiny Instinct
This section delves into the mesmerising notion that we have a disposition to believe that the future will follow the same path as the past (similarly to what we saw at The Straight Line Instinct), and that things will remain unchanged. But Hans Rosling challenges this belief and illuminates the reader's perspective by revealing the breathtaking pace of change and improvement in our world.
For instance, Hans sheds light on the widespread notion that poverty is a permanent aspect of humanity. However, he emphasises that this view misses the remarkable progress made in reducing poverty and improving lives globally. He highlights that this progress is not a foregone conclusion, but rather the outcome of deliberate action, investment in education, healthcare, and economic growth.
Moreover, the author also argues that our tendency to believe in destiny and unchanging circumstances blinds us to the influential role we play in shaping our future. He gives an example of how we might consider conflict and war as inevitable, but he also stresses that peace and cooperation are attainable. He inspires us to take charge and shape a more harmonious world through diplomacy, conflict resolution, and education and development initiatives.
The Single Perspective Instinct
This instinct refers to the propensity to view the world from a limited, singular viewpoint, shaped by our own life experiences and cultural biases. Hans argues that this narrow-mindedness causes us to leave unnoticed the complex and diverse nature of the world and the idea that our own experiences and beliefs are not universally applicable.
Hans highlights that many individuals believe their country's way of doing things is the only correct method, disregarding the fact that different cultures may offer unique perspectives and approaches. It's crucial to keep an open mind and seek out diverse perspectives to gain a better understanding of the world and make informed decisions.
Additionally, this bias leads us to overlook the experiences and perspectives of others. We might assume, for example, that everyone in the world has access to healthcare and education, while this is a privilege that not everyone has. Adopting a more inclusive and diverse mindset helps us comprehend the experiences of others and make informed decisions that consider everyone's needs and viewpoints.
The Blame Instinct
Are you tired of playing the blame game? This instinct highlights our natural tendency to point fingers when things go wrong, instead of delving into the real reasons behind the issue. According to Hans Rosling, this urge stems from a desire for simple answers to complex situations.
But this habit can cloud our perception of the world, by oversimplifying complex problems and attributing blame to one person or group without fully considering the many factors at play. This narrow view can lead to incorrect assumptions and misguided decision-making.
Take global problems, for instance. The causes are rarely straightforward, but instead a tangled web of historical, cultural, economic, and political threads. It's easy to assign blame to the poor, or a specific government or policy, but this oversimplification ignores the bigger picture and all the intricacies involved.
The Urgency Instinct
Finally, the Urgency: our tendency to perceive situations as more pressing than they truly are. The author explains this behaviour stems from a natural inclination to react swiftly to perceived threats and dangers. Yet, this instinct can mislead us into overestimating the immediacy of a situation, or disregarding the gradual shifts and underlying forces behind the change.
By succumbing to the urgency instinct, Hans notes that he has made some of the worst medical decisions of his career on pandemic controlling, as he was pressured to act immediately without considering all the available information and options.
When urgency gets over you: take a deep breath, re-examine the data, think analytically and critically, and do not trust predictions that do not account for uncertainty and complexity.
Conclusion
This is truly a remarkable and inspiring read that challenges our perceptions of the world and the way we think about global issues. Throughout the book, Hans provides evidence to dispel myths and to paint a more accurate picture of the world.
The book is written in an engaging and accessible style, making it easy for readers to understand the complex issues that Hans is addressing. It is filled with interesting and thought-provoking insights that will challenge the way you think about the world, and it is sure to leave you feeling more informed, more hopeful, and more inspired to make a difference.
If you're looking for a book that will change the way you think about the world, and that will leave you feeling inspired and optimistic, then Factfulness is your book! Grab a copy today, and discover the world through Hans's fact-based lens. You won't regret it!